El Niño and the Garden Centre of the Future

How changing weather patterns could create new opportunities for UK garden centres.

Weather has always been one of the biggest influences on garden centre trading. A sunny spring can transform footfall and plant sales, while a wet weekend can change customer behaviour almost overnight.

For garden centres, this isn't a new challenge. What does seem to be changing, however, is the degree of uncertainty around weather patterns and how customers respond to them.

Recent reports about a potentially exceptional El Niño event are a timely reminder of this. While El Niño is only one influence on UK weather, and its effects here are far from straightforward, it highlights the wider issue facing horticultural businesses: how do you plan for a future where the weather is becoming harder to anticipate?

The Met Office confirmed in June 2026 that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and has warned that the event could become one of the strongest on record. In August, the BBC reported the Met Office's assessment that El Niño could become the “strongest in living memory”.

Current forecasts suggest sea-surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2°C, with some predictions pointing towards an event of exceptional strength.

For the UK, this does not simply mean that we should expect hotter weather. Historically, El Niño can influence the likelihood of milder, wetter and windier conditions through autumn and early winter, while also being associated with colder, calmer periods later in the winter. Other atmospheric and oceanic influences mean the actual outcome for the UK remains uncertain.

For an industry as closely connected to the weather as horticultural retail, that uncertainty is worth considering and preparing for. 

Weather volatility creates a different kind of challenge

The traditional garden centre model is closely linked to the gardening season.

The sun comes out, people start thinking about their gardens, and visits to garden centres increase. Plants, garden furniture, barbecues, tools and accessories all benefit from customers being outside and starting to plan their gardens.

But recent years have demonstrated how quickly those patterns can change.

A prolonged wet period can affect plant sales and footfall. An early warm spell can bring forward demand. Extreme heat can make customers less inclined to spend time outdoors, while cold or wet weather can encourage people to look for indoor experiences instead.

The challenge isn't necessarily that people will stop gardening. It is that the conditions in which they garden, shop and spend their leisure time are becoming less predictable…

That raises an interesting question for the sector.

Rather than trying to predict the weather, could garden centres become better at responding to it?

From weather-dependent to weather-resilient

There is an argument that the garden centres best placed to navigate this changing environment will be those that give customers good reasons to visit in a wider range of conditions.

That doesn't mean moving away from horticulture. For most garden centres, gardening should remain at the heart of the proposition.

It does, however, mean considering how the wider business supports horticulture and gives customers reasons to spend time on site throughout the year.

Food and catering, indoor retail, covered plant areas, seasonal experiences, workshops, events and complementary retail can all play a role.

The balance will be different for every garden centre. A large destination centre will have different opportunities from a smaller independent nursery or plant centre.

The important thing is not to develop additional facilities simply because they are fashionable, but to understand what is right for the individual business, its customers and its location.

Climate-resilient gardening could become increasingly relevant

There is another area where garden centres have an important role to play: helping customers understand how to garden successfully in changing conditions.

Garden centres have always provided advice. As conditions change, that expertise could become even more valuable.

Customers may increasingly be looking for plants and products that can cope with the changing climate including:

• Periods of drought and water restrictions

• More intense rainfall

• Wetter winters

• Changing soil conditions

• Greater exposure to wind

• Shadier areas

• Changing wildlife and biodiversity

Drought-tolerant planting is likely to become increasingly relevant, but this isn't simply about filling plant areas with Mediterranean species.

Gardens need to cope with a range of conditions, sometimes within the same year.

That creates opportunities to talk to customers about rain gardens, water butts, irrigation, moisture-retaining composts, mulches, soil improvement, shade planting and resilient plant choices.

It also reinforces something that has always been one of the strengths of a good garden centre: knowledge.

Could demonstration gardens have a bigger role?

Changing weather could also influence the way demonstration gardens are used.

Rather than simply showcasing attractive planting combinations, demonstration areas could increasingly address the problems customers are actually experiencing at home. For example:

The Water-Smart Garden - Showing how attractive planting can be maintained while reducing reliance on watering. 

The Rain Garden - Demonstrating planting and drainage approaches for areas that experience heavier rainfall.

The Resilient Border - Showing plants that can cope with a wider range of conditions.

The Wildlife Garden - Demonstrating how planting can support biodiversity and provide habitats.

The Low-Maintenance Garden - Showing customers how to create attractive outdoor spaces with less time and resource.

These ideas don't need to replace traditional plant merchandising. They can sit alongside it, helping customers understand why particular plants and products might work for them.

For a sector where many purchases are still driven by what customers see and like, giving products context can be particularly powerful.

It turns demonstration space into something more useful: part inspiration, part education and part retail theatre.

Rethinking the physical garden centre

Changing weather is also something that may need to be considered when garden centres look at future development and masterplanning.

This is something we are already discussing within a number of the garden centre developments and masterplans that Pleydell Smithyman is working on.

Covered and sheltered areas, for example, can provide value in more than one type of weather. A covered plant area can make browsing more comfortable during heavy rain, while shaded areas can become increasingly useful during periods of extreme heat.

Flexibility is also important.

Can seasonal space be adapted quickly? Can outdoor areas be used differently depending on conditions? Can customers move comfortably between indoor and outdoor environments? Can catering and other facilities provide a reason to remain on site when the weather isn't ideal?

These are relatively practical questions, but they can make a significant difference to how a site works throughout the year and in the increasingly extreme weather we are seeing.

It isn't about trying to build a garden centre that is completely unaffected by the weather. That isn't realistic.

It is about creating places that work well across a wider range of conditions.

Don't fight the weather - respond to it

There may also be an opportunity to think differently about how garden centres communicate with customers, because weather doesn't always have to be something that works against the business.

A wet autumn could provide the perfect reason to talk about planting for spring.

A hot spell could provide an opportunity to highlight water-smart gardening.

A cold or wet day could remind customers about coffee, lunch, houseplants, gifts or indoor shopping.

The weather can become part of the conversation with customers rather than simply something that determines whether they visit. This requires businesses to be responsive. Marketing, merchandising and stock presentation need to be capable of changing as conditions change.

For independent garden centres in particular, that ability to react quickly can be a real strength.

Thinking beyond the next season

At Pleydell Smithyman, we are already considering some of these issues as part of the garden centre developments and masterplans we are involved with.

The question isn't necessarily:

“What does a successful garden centre look like today?”

It is perhaps more useful to ask:

“What does this particular garden centre need to look like in five, ten or fifteen years?”

That means thinking about changing customer expectations alongside changing weather patterns.

For some businesses, that may mean strengthening catering. For others, it could mean better covered environments, more flexible retail space, improved water management, purposeful demonstration gardens or a greater emphasis on year-round experiences.

There is no single answer.

Every garden centre has its own location, customer base, proposition, physical constraints and commercial priorities. The important thing is to consider resilience as part of the development process rather than trying to retrofit it later.

The opportunity ahead

It is inevitable that El Niño may bring challenges, but it is difficult to know precisely what impact this particular event will have on the UK.

Perhaps the more important point is the wider lesson.

Weather will continue to influence garden centre trading. It always has, but what will change is the range and unpredictability of the conditions businesses need to respond to.

That creates new customer needs. People will still want attractive gardens. They will still want plants, inspiration and advice. They will still want places to meet, eat, shop and spend time, but they may increasingly need help understanding how to garden and enjoy the garden centre experience in different conditions.

The garden centre of the future could therefore be more than a place that sells plants. It could be a place that helps people understand their gardens, make better choices and enjoy them throughout the year.

It can be somewhere to eat, shop, learn, experience and relax, while still remaining fundamentally what a garden centre has always been: a place that inspires people to enjoy gardens and gardening.

Perhaps the real opportunity isn't to predict what the weather will do.

It is to create garden centres that are flexible enough to respond to it.

I’m fortunate that the team at Pleydell Smithyman understand and believe that is an increasingly important consideration when thinking about the next generation of garden centre development - creating places that are commercially sound, environmentally responsive and, above all, relevant to how customers will want to live, garden and spend their time in the future.