Garden Centre Weather Update for June 2025

At Pleydell Smithyman we are aware that the weather has a massive impact on trade, so we do a monthly weather forecast review in our news articles.

The headlines for June are that it has continued to be a very positive start to the gardening season, with the good weather having a really positive impact on trade throughout March, April and May.  As we have seen in Garden Centre Association Barometer of Trade and the HTA Market Updates, trade continues to be strong, despite a mixed banks holiday period, and the weather has been a massive factor in this!

But what will it be like in the coming month – and how will it impact trade across the UK.  According to the BBC at  Monthly Outlook - BBC Weather, they say that wet and windy weather should mostly prevail for the next couple of weeks so this may affect trade.  However, this is only in the short term, and temperatures are likely to climb above average for a time towards the weekend, with temporary drier conditions.  A more general return to drier, warmer weather is possible deeper into June.

For the month, whilst it starts disappointing, this reads well in general for garden centres, and at a time when weather helps maintain customer visits.

The https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather page stated on 30th May:

Wednesday 28 May to Sunday 1 June

A warmer trend

Changeable conditions will remain on the cards at first, including a transient high pressure influence around mid-week. Temperatures could rise above average towards and for a time over the weekend, with somewhat more settled conditions still likely.

In fact, a high pressure ridge could spread further north, including towards parts of the UK and western continental Europe. More northern and north-western parts of the UK could see further changeable and windy conditions, in line with a stronger low pressure system between Iceland and Scotland.

Nevertheless, a majority of weather forecast solutions suggest a return to more widespread unsettled and windy conditions into Sunday. Temperatures are likely to remain at least slightly above average, but they should drop on Sunday and into next week.

Monday 2 June to Sunday 8 June

Opposing solutions

Into the start of meteorological summer, long-range weather forecast models continue to show stronger diverging model solutions. According to some, much of the UK could eventually see a return to drier and calmer conditions, especially as next week progresses. The latter would correspond to a stronger high pressure signal over parts of the UK and/or into western continental Europe. Temperatures could remain or return well above average in that case.

By contrast, an increasing number of long-term weather forecasts show a stronger low pressure signature near the UK bringing a continuation of the rather unsettled and windy conditions, with temperatures lingering around the seasonal average. However, England, Wales and perhaps parts of Ireland might turn calmer and drier towards the end of next week.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty beyond mid-next week in particular. In view of this, even cooler-than-average conditions could develop by next weekend, which is consistent with the high pressure shifting west of Great Britain and Ireland, causing a brisk west to north-westerly flow across the board.

Monday 9 June to Sunday 22 June

A drier and warmer outlook

Some changes are expected deeper into June. In this context, a general return to mostly drier and fairly warmer conditions seems still the more probable outcome. Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see wetter and windier weather at times, however.

These conditions could persist beyond mid-month, i.e. the high-pressure could linger in the vicinity of the UK, leading to largely dry and prevailing summery weather conditions. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are still possible.

With a low pressure system lingering somewhere between Iceland and Greenland, northern and north-western parts of the United Kingdom continue to be prone to wetter, windier and slightly cooler conditions as well.

Whilst the weather will be mixed in the coming month, for gardeners this could be ideal to help their gardens throve.  The mix of wet, dry, hot and cool weather can be a positive one.  It many mean less garden centre customers go away over the May half term week, but this will mean they spend more time in the garden!