May 2025 Long Term Weather Forecast for Garden Centres

It has been a great start to the gardening season, with the good weather having a really positive impact on trade.  As we have seen in Garden Centre Associaion Barometre of Trade and the HTA Market Updates, trade is up, and the weather has been a massive factor in this!

But what will it be like in the coming month – and how will it impact trade across the UK.  According to the BBC at  Monthly Outlook - BBC Weather, they say that temperatures will be slightly above seasonal averages with some rain at first, followed by summer-like temperatures towards the end of April and into May.  A drier trend is still on the cards later in the forecast period, along with temperatures at least slightly above average. However, intermittent cooler and wetter spells are possible.

This reads well in general for garden centres, and at a time when weather is essential in the key month of May.

The https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather page stated on 29th April 2025 :

Friday 25 April to Sunday 4 May

Generally fairly warm

Over the weekend Atlantic low pressure systems will affect parts of the UK bringing some rain or showers on Saturday. Sunday will be mostly settled across England and Wales but Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland will be windier with further rain. Some of this will be heavy and persistent, especially in north-west Scotland. Temperatures will rise especially across the south of the UK.

As the high pressure area continues to spread northwards across the UK, it will be mainly dry at the beginning of next week, with sunny spells in the south. Rain or showers are possible in northern Scotland, accompanied by continued brisk winds.

In the days that follow there will be plenty of dry weather and prolonged sunny spells, with temperatures rising well above average and reaching summer-like levels in England and Wales. It could remain a little cooler in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

On Thursday a deepening low could approach from the north-west, bringing stronger winds and spells of heavy rain in some areas, although the exact track and timing of this system is uncertain. Nevertheless, temperatures are expected to drop more significantly from the north-west but may still be slightly above average or close to seasonal values in Scotland.

Towards the end of next week high pressure could then reassert itself from the west, leading to settled and largely dry conditions again. Daytime temperatures are then likely to rise slightly but a few chilly nights are possible.

Monday 5 May to Sunday 11 May

Maybe turning cooler

The reliability of forecasts for the first full week of May remains low but there is a chance that a general warmer trend will continue across the UK. This is due to the prevailing higher air pressure in the region, which will bring warmer temperatures and help to reduce the likelihood of precipitation.

Some long-range forecast models suggest that a cooler or colder northerly flow could prevail at the beginning of this week. In this case temperatures could temporarily fall slightly below average, accompanied by some showers which could become wintry at the high ground of Scotland.

Uncertainty increases as the week progresses but conditions could remain changeable in line with these models and temperatures could rise slightly above average later in the week.

Monday 12 May to Sunday 25 May

Reduced confidence

As we move into the second half of May long-term weather forecast models are becoming increasingly divergent. There is generally no clear weather trend in sight.

However, a continuation of high pressure dominated conditions is a little more probable. Temperatures could remain near or slightly above average for this time of the year. As far as precipitation is concerned, the likelihood of scattered showers, some thundery, will increase.

All in all, whilst the weather will start hot in the coming month, it will drop off cooler towards the end of the month, but for gardeners, the mix of hot and cool weather can be a positive one.  It many mean less garden centre customers go away over the May half term week, but this will mean they spend more time in the garden!