Andrew burton
December 2024
WITH A SHIFTING POPULATION LANDSCAPE, ANDREW BURTON EXPLORES THE EVOLVING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE GARDEN CENTRE INDUSTRY
It’s a changing world. It seems that since 2020, we have been going through an ever-evolving life. The word ‘Permacrisis’ hit the Oxford English dictionary in 2022, a word describing the feeling of living through a period of war, inflation, and political instability. Two years on, and I feel we are still in this situation with ongoing and new events all over the world. In the UK we have seen changes in government, which has led to the new budget, which will cause challenges in our garden centre industry, and the ongoing change in our demographic.
So, just how is the demographic of the UK changing, and why is this important to garden centres?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports the UK population rose to 68.3 million by the middle of 2023. This uplift was largely due to net international migration, and the total population of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland grew from an estimated 67.6 million in mid-2022 to 68.3 million in mid-2023.
According to Sky News, this is the largest annual numerical and percentage increase since comparable records began in 1971.
Sky News added with the exception of 2020, during the COVID pandemic, officials said it was the first time there had been negative “natural change” in the population since 1976, and that the natural change in population, which is the difference between births and deaths, fell by 16,300. Previous projections from the ONS suggested a negative reading would not occur until the mid-2030s.
There could be an additional one million people aged 85 and over in the UK by 2036
When we consider that The Office for National Statistics projects the population will increase by 6.6 million people (9.9%) between 2021 and 2036, which includes a net migration of 6.1 million people and about 500,000 more births than deaths, this is going to have an impact across the UK in many ways.
The ONS stated that the UK’s population continues to grow, but at a slower rate than previously, and that the UK population has grown year-on-year since 1982, and according to the BBC, they say that figures could be an additional one million people aged 85 and over in the UK by 2036.
The UK population is projected to increase further; our 2020-based interim national population projections suggest the UK population will surpass 69.2 million by mid-2030 and reach 70.5 million by mid-2041.
When I consider the data that shows that the UK’s age structure is shifting towards older ages (reported due to declining fertility rates and people living longer), I started to consider this against garden centres core customer demographics. The ONS state that the number of people of pensionable age relative to the size of those of expected working age is increasing. The UK life expectancy at birth in 2018 to 2020 was 79.0 years for males and 82.9 years for females, and the ONS now predict that life expectancy at birth in the UK in 2020 is 87.3 years for males and 90.2 years for females.
So, what does this mean for Garden Centres? Simplifying it, the core demographic is getting larger!
The Horticulture Trade Association states reports that, 'two-thirds of British adults visit a garden centre annually with 78% of British adults have access to a private garden. That’s approximately 43 million people in the UK, and 62% of those with a private garden use them to grow plants, trees, and flowers, which is approximately 26 million people’.
As the population changes, the customer needs and wants are also likely to change, and customers may have different focuses. However, if we reflect on the growing population and growing age demographic and consider that if the same percentage of people have access to a garden, then this gives garden centres a lot more customers to aim at as the year rolls on.
As the population changes, the customer needs and wants may also change
An issue that raises its head is the need to house an ever-growing population and, where possible, give them a garden. In the recent budget set down by the government in October 2024, over £5 billion to boost housing in the form of support for housebuilders, Affordable Homes Programme, and investment into the development of sites across the country. Of this £5 billion, Rachel Reeves said £3 billion of additional support would be given to SME housebuilders and the build to rent sector in the form of housing guarantee schemes to support the private housing market. One of Labour’s pre-election pledges was to create a further 1.5 million homes over the next parliament.
I’m not looking at this with rose tinted glasses; firstly, the change and uplift in the number of people in the UK won’t happen overnight. But when I consider the long term, our industry is one that changes with change, adapts, and pivots all the time. The opportunity is there in the future, the capability to grab that opportunity is there to be seen in our garden centre industry. With a little confidence and with a good strategic approach, we know our industry will maximise these opportunities. Despite budget challenges, the garden centre industry is known for resilience.
I feel that the best thing for our industry is to do in the future, is do what we always do - plan for it, think ahead, adapt, develop, stay positive, and in short, get ready for change and evolution.